Choppy Table Craps Strategy

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Re: Surviving a choppy table Post by falcon » Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:14 pm djj711 wrote: I play craps about 1-2 times a month in either AC or Philly, usually 5X odds. 'MP, I love your Choppy-Table Short-Leash because it works, but I hate it because I can’t use it often enough to give me the kind of action that I want when I’m at the tables. It’s just too damn frustrating to stand there at a choppy table and wait for a shooter to make his first PL-winner before I can make a bet.

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1. Choppy: uneven table action where craps shooters are sevening out early and not many numbers are thrown. Cold Dice: this craps table has gone cold and the dice ain’t passing. Also cold table. Come: bet the pass line after the craps shooter has established a point. The next number rolled becomes your point.
2. There were 4 tables open, all 15 min, 3 per side. I bought in on the only table with an open spot. When I wasn't shooting, I used one of two strategies 1) place even $66, hop 5,9 and 3 way craps $35 center action. 2) place inside $66, $15 hard 4&10, hop easy 4/10 $10 each. There were no PSO but the table was choppy.
3. By changing gears to the Don’t Pass when the table is clearly cold, you have two powerful things going for you: 1) The table is freezing, so the shooter is likely to 7-out resulting in a win for your Don’t Pass, and 2) Playing the Don’t Pass with Odds is the best bet you can possibly make on the craps table, in terms of house advantage.

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One thing is for certain when playing craps: Due to the house edge on every bet in the casino, the longer your play the same strategy, the more certain you will eventually lose to the casino.

Every bet, every strategy and every system is subject to the house edge that favors the casino. The casinos have made sure of that. That’s how they amass their fortunes. If you’re playing one single strategy, there will be times the dice are rolling in your favor and you’re racking up the winnings, and there will be times when you’re losing and depleting your bankroll.

In the long run, as you continue to play one strategy, those wins and losses will start to average out to the house edge of that strategy, which obviously will always lead to the casino winning and you losing. So, even if you’re ahead, the longer you play an individual strategy, the more you ensure the casino takes your money.

Unless you’re an advanced player with the ability to influence the dice, the only way to change that certainty, and give yourself a real opportunity to beat the casino in the long run, is to alter your strategy to fit the current trends on the table.

To win at craps, you need to maximize your ‘DO’ bets when the table is ‘warm’ and ‘hot’, switch to and maximize your ‘DON’T’ bets when the table is ‘cold’, and limit your risk and protect your bankroll when the craps table is ‘choppy’.

We’ve all seen the person who walks up to the craps table, buys in for $5,000 and immediately starts playing $640 across with quarters on each of the hardways without spending even a minute to assess the current trend on the table. Well, in 15 minutes and $2,500 in loses later, they’re scratching their head wondering what happened.

Regardless of whether you’re playing $5 & $6 bets on a limited bankroll or buying in for $5,000, YOU DON’T WANT TO BE THAT GUY! You want to play SMART to win, and playing smart means betting according to the table trend.

There will be those (typically the ‘Math’ gurus) that will immediately jump in and tell you that identifying a craps table trend is impossible because, ‘Each roll of the dice is independent of the prior rolls, and any number can roll at any time, based on the probabilities of each individual roll’.

Technically, they’re correct. You can’t predict the next roll of the dice or when a table, or shooter, will turn ‘hot’ or ‘cold’, and you can’t predict when it will end, but we’ve all been there, and you certainly know when you’re in the middle of a ‘hot’ or ‘cold’ table run or a shooter is having a ‘massive’ roll.

Being able to identify current conditions and trends early, and matching your betting strategy to those trends, is your best bet at leaving with the casino’s money. It’s not easy, but if you know what to look for, the more you play, the better you’ll get at assessing current conditions at the tables and seeing trends start to develop.

Choppy Table Craps Strategy For Beginners

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

You’re looking for a ‘warm’ to ‘hot’ table or a ‘cold’ table. That’s where the money is and your observations need to start when you walk into the casino and approach the craps tables.

How many players are at the table?

• Most players play the ‘Do’ side of betting. If you see two tables with the same minimums and one is full and the other is empty, it’s not hard to figure out that the full table is warm to hot and the empty table is cold. It doesn’t mean that either table will continue on those trends, but you can be pretty confident that’s the current trend.

What’s the mood at the tables?

• You want to assess what the general enthusiasm is at each of the tables. People that are winning are smiling, there’s more chatter at the table, it’s louder, and there’s typically more energy on the hotter tables. If you’re looking at a quiet table, no one is smiling, the dealers are the only one’s socializing, the players keep looking up and over at the other tables, then you’re likely looking at a cold or choppy table.

Who’s reaching down into the craps table?

• Even if you can’t get into a position to see into the table, look to see who is reaching down into it. Is it the players picking up their winnings from each of the rolls, or is it the dealers sweeping the bets off the tables because another seven rolled? Again, another tell tale sign of what the current trend is at the tables.

How much money is on the table in bets?

• A great indication of whether a table is hot or cold is the amount of money that’s on the table relevant to the number of players at the table. If the table is warm to hot, you’ll see lots of money on place bets, heavy odds money, and you usually see plenty of money on the hardways and even on bonus bets like the ‘All Tall’ and ‘All Small’. Cold tables typically see little money on tables as players pull back on their betting or their remaining bankrolls don’t afford them bigger bets.

How much money is on the rail in front of the players?

• To further confirm what you’ve observed so far, take a look at the rail in front of each of the players. Are they loaded with lots of green and black chips, or are there only small handfuls of red and white chips. If people are winning those rails load up pretty quickly. On the other hand, the rails empty quickly when the table is cold.

Ask, Ask, Ask

• Lastly, don’t ignore the obvious. When you walk up to the table, ask the players to your right and left ‘how the table’s been’. Most will be honest but don’t forget, they’re seeing it from their perspective. If they’re placing ‘Do’ bets on a cold table, it’s going horribly for them, but if they’re playing the ‘Don’ts’, that same table has been great.

Craps Secrets Tip – When you buy in, throw a chip on the table and say ‘Any point for the table’, then try to get the dealer to confirm your observations. Ask ‘How long has the table been hot (or cold)?’. All dealers appreciate the tip and they’ll usually give you the scoop. And… the dealer will place your tip on the hottest number at the table.

While none of this is a guarantee, when you start stacking up one clue after another from the above, you’re going to right much more often than your wrong.

No trend lasts forever, and the trend you identified will certainly change. You need to remain diligent and observant to ensure you identify the change earlier than later. (If in doubt, just stop betting temporarily until you know where the table is heading.)

TRACKING THE TABLE

One of best ways to identify subsequent trend changes earlier is to track the table. Tracking keeps you diligent and aware without having to commit everything to memory. Whatever tracking system you use the key is to keep it as simple as possible so you can focus on your betting. There are many tracking methods out there, but I’ll walk you through what I track and how.

Choppy Table Craps Strategy Rules

Simple Tracking Method

The tracking system I use is simple and only tracks repeating number and rolls between 7s. To execute this system you need to use 2 rail sections at the craps tables. The rail directly in front of me is for my bankroll, and the section immediately to my right is my tracking rail.

You use both slots on the rail to track

• Rolls Between 7s
  • The slot closest to the table is used to track the number of rolls between 7s.
  • Stand 1 white chip for every non-7 roll and start creating a row from left to right
  • When a ‘seven’ rolls, place a red chip next to the last white chip placed
  • Track a total of 20 to 24 rolls, about 3 to 4 shooters, then start pulling chips from the left side of the row
  • More than 2 ‘sevens’ within 12 rolls is a cold trend, less than 2 ‘sevens’ within 12 rolls is a warm to trend
  • What you’re looking for is to identify changes to the current trend and this should help you see that clearly

• Repeating Numbers
  • With a little overlap, you can fit 6 chips lying flat in the slot
  • From left to right, they represent the box numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10)
  • When any box number is rolled, place a white chip in the spot for that number
    • You can use a red chip to designate hardways if you play them
  • Your looking for the hot numbers, numbers that are repeating
  • Track a total of 20 to 24 rolls, and then start over

After getting some practice tracking the craps tables, you’ll be amazed at how in tune you can become with the trends that are happening. Does it always work? No, but it works well enough that once you start tracking the table and maximizing your winnings, you may never go back to blind betting again.

The goal of everything we’ve discussed around assessing craps tables and identifying trends, is to ensure we’re using the right betting strategy at the right time, to take as much from the casino as possible.

Let The Trend Guide The Strategy

Contrary to popular belief, you should never walk into a casino committed to play one particular strategy. That’s the fastest way ensure financial ruin of your bankroll. Instead, you should walk into the casino with a repertoire (or toolbox) of strategies to use dependent on the trends at the table you’re playing at.

You need at least 2 to 3 ‘Right Side’ strategies to use when tables are ‘Hot’, 1 to 2 ‘Don’t Side’ strategies to use when tables are ‘Cold’, and at least 1 conservative, low money strategy to use (if you bet at all) to use when tables are ‘Choppy’.

You can find plenty of ‘Do’ and ‘Don’t’ strategies online, or you can check out the post on Winning At The Craps Tables.

EXAMPLE

Here’s an example of a recent visit I made to my local casino.

I walked into the casino with my ‘toolbox’ of strategies and made my way to the craps tables. There were two $10 minimum tables open, both with about 8 or so people playing at each.

One table stood out as no one at the table seemed happy, two players were looking over at the other table trying to decide if they should move to that table. Those were my first indications that this was a ‘cold’ table.

Reminder: You can make money on HOT tables and you can make money on COLD tables.

So I walked up to what looked like the ‘cold’ table and continued to assess the table.

• Very little money on the table aside from Pass Line bets.
• The rails in front of the players were light, with one player holding his last 12 chips in his hands
• One player in the corner playing the ‘Don’t’ side… His rail was loaded with chips

That was enough for me, I started playing one of my ‘Don’t’ strategies and immediately started tracking the table.

Sevens were rolling every 3 to 4 rolls with an occasional 5 and not a lot of repeat numbers showing either. It stayed that way for about 25 minutes which was more than enough for me to start trading green chips for black chips and obviously I was happy.

No trend lasts forever and all of sudden, the count jumped to 7 rolls and the 8 repeated 3 times during the roll and the point was made. Not sure if I was seeing an anomaly after losing that bet, I sat the next roller out. He had 6 rolls before a 7 and repeated the 5 twice and no craps numbers during his roll.

Nothing is a guarantee, but I came off my ‘Don’t’ strategy and switched to one of my ‘Do’ strategies. Next roller was mediocre and I was just under break even for his roll so I decided to try one more ‘Do’ bet before deciding the table might be choppy.

Thank goodness I did, because the table went immediately HOT and the next 3 rollers had monster rolls. After the 3^rd hot roller, there was a Point-7 Out, so I colored up and left with much more than my original win goal for the night.

Does it always work out as perfect as that? Obviously NOT, but more than enough to make up for the times it doesn’t. Also, by having a toolbox of strategies for hot, cold and choppy tables, you’re well positioned to take advantage of the opportunities presented to you.

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